Runout Modelling on Turtle Mountain

John Allan's danger zone mapping.
Click on image to enlarge.

Dr. John Allan was the first who identified and mapped the extent of the South Peak hazard. Based on his information, in 1934, the Government of Alberta issued a Notice of Danger to residents living in the danger zone.

In 2000, BGC Engineering revisited Allan’s assumed failure mechanism and volume calculations. Using modern methods to determine rock fall and runout, BGC Engineering revised the danger zones. All of the current early warning and emergency response planning and protocols use the BGC Empirical Upper Limit Zone.

Map showing BGC Engineering and John Allan's zones. Click on image to enlarge.

Based on this BGC Engineering's new calculation, along with a higher resolution digital elevation model and improved 3-D analysis, O. Hungr Geotechnical Research predicted a new runout if South Peak fails.

As Alberta Geological Survey and collaborators continue our structural studies, these estimates will be refined and updated.

Map showing current runout estimates. Click on image to enlarge.